Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
